Signal column is green when the rotation portfolio beat the 34/33/33 daily-rebalanced baseline that year, red when it underperformed. A red row is the answer to "did we lose to just holding the equal-weight?".
| Year | Signal Rotation | Baseline (34/33/33) | SPY buy-and-hold | GLD buy-and-hold | IGV buy-and-hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -1.4% | -1.4% | +7.7% | -14.6% | +3.5% |
| 2017 | +24.2% | +24.2% | +20.8% | +11.9% | +40.7% |
| 2018 | +3.7% | +1.4% | -5.2% | -3.1% | +11.2% |
| 2019 | +33.9% | +28.5% | +31.1% | +17.8% | +35.0% |
| 2020 | +57.0% | +31.8% | +17.2% | +23.9% | +50.1% |
| 2021 | +15.4% | +12.8% | +30.5% | -6.2% | +14.5% |
| 2022 | -6.1% | -17.7% | -18.6% | +0.8% | -34.9% |
| 2023 | +33.1% | +31.6% | +26.7% | +11.8% | +58.2% |
| 2024 | +28.3% | +27.2% | +25.6% | +27.0% | +26.9% |
| 2025 | +43.8% | +27.6% | +18.0% | +61.5% | +5.8% |
| 2026 (YTD) | +4.4% | +6.5% | +13.7% | +1.6% | +0.2% |
| All-time cumulative | +641.7% | +346.2% | +332.2% | +215.1% | +393.6% |
Cash-on-exit column is green when going to cash on red signals beat the fully-invested rotation that year, red when it hurt. Difference column: positive = cash was the right call; negative = staying invested was.
| Year | Fully-invested rotation | Cash-on-exit variant | Difference (Cash − Invested) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -1.4% | -1.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2017 | +24.2% | +24.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2018 | +3.7% | +3.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2019 | +33.9% | +33.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2020 | +57.0% | +55.3% | -1.7 pp |
| 2021 | +15.4% | +12.9% | -2.5 pp |
| 2022 | -6.1% | -4.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2023 | +33.1% | +33.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2024 | +28.3% | +27.1% | -1.2 pp |
| 2025 | +43.8% | +36.6% | -7.2 pp |
| 2026 (YTD) | +4.4% | +4.4% | +0.0 pp |
| All-time cumulative | +641.7% | +584.9% | -56.8 pp |